Thursday night guided us Game 2 of the World Series. The Phils took Game 1 in semi-surprising fashion. It's not like Sabathia got rocked or anything, and you expected Lee to pitch well. But to pitch a complete game, and allow only 1 run? Now that's Impressive.
But moving on to Gm. 2 I saw something that I became quite familiar with during my time behind an offshore linboard. It's a situation where the public tries to play the part of the wiseguy. The Yankees were HEAVILY favored (2 to 1) in this game. It was also a desperation game for them as they did not want to be going to Philly down 2 games to nothing. The Yankees just lost their first home game of the entire plays, and yet …
The public was on Philadelphia. I do not know if everyone wanted to fall in love with the story of Pedro vs. the Yankees or what (it certainly looks like Fox did, that's for sure!). But I do know that I've seen this scenario before: the public thinks they're smarter than the oddsmakers.
Usually the public at large bets like lemmings, all over the favorites. When the percentages are too high, that provides a sports betting opportunity. But when the public tries to outthink themselves, that provides another kind of opportunity.
There are no guarantees in life but usually when the public thinks they're smart, that usually makes the cookie smile.
Final score: Yankees 3 Phillies 1
Until next time,